BigOrangeBasketball.comTennessee Basketball

In Part 2 of my projected look ahead at the SEC race this season, here’s my predicted order of finish in the East.  The balance of power in the conference will definitely remain in the East this season.  I anticipate as competitive an SEC East race as there has been since the conference was split up into the two divisions. Ironically, however, Alabama could very well win the regular season championship outright by virtue of the fact that the SEC East teams will be beating each other up throughout the season.

SEC East

1. Tennessee (11-5)

Bruce Pearl’s Vols have won the SEC East championship three of the four years Pearl has been the coach and I see no reason to go against Tennessee this season, although it will be a close race.  The Vols seem to have stabilized their point guard situation with the addition of backup Melvin Goins.  Scotty Hopson will have to have a big year, and I expect he will.  And Tyler Smith will need to be much more consistent in SEC play than he was last season, and I think he will in this his senior season.

2. Kentucky/Vanderbilt/Florida tie (10-6)

Kentucky

Kentucky fans will be insulted at the notion that their beloved Wildcats won’t win the SEC East or the SEC going away this season, what with John Calipari and an influx of top-ranked recruits now on the roster.  But this isn’t Conference USA or the Atlantic 10.  And I’m not convinced that the dribble-drive offense will be effective night after night in the SEC.  Fundamentally, it’s not a sound offense, and Kentucky has always been strong on fundamentals, like them or not.  The Wildcats may have more talent than they’ve had, but are they better coached?

Florida

It’s hard to believe you say that the two-time defending NCAA Champions two years removed could be overlooked by many this year, but it appears to me that’s the case. The Gators seem to have trimmed some of the dead wood on their roster from the past two seasons, and Billy Donovan seems to have recovered from the Orlando Magic hangover.  Florida will have a strong year.

Vanderbilt

The Commodores may have the best combination of talent and experience in the league this season, but Kevin Stallings in 10 seasons at Vanderbilt has never won an SEC East title so I’ll go with the odds that he won’t again this season.  For whatever reason, the ‘Dores can’t seem to sustain consistently solid play once the conference portion of the schedule begins.

South Carolina (8-8)

The Gamecocks may very well be improved over last season when they won 10 games in the SEC East and finished second to Tennessee head-to-head.  But I don’t think South Carolina has improved as much as the three teams above them, and I’m not convinced that South Carolina, under Darrin Horn is a very good defensive team.

Georgia (4-12)

I actually like the hire of Mark Fox, but the Dawgs have got a ways to go become competitive with their SEC East brethren. I do look for Georgia to improve as the season goes along and have some say about who wins the East come late February.

NCAA Predictions

I think Tennessee and Kentucky are in.  It used to be that 10 regular season conference wins got you into the tournament automatically, but that changed after last year and the perception that the SEC was a down league.  I don’t see that perception changing much this season, so I see Vandy and Florida on the bubble. Florida may get the edge over Vanderbilt by virtue of its recent history in NCAA tournament play.

Several of you have asked me to make my predicitons on the order of finish this season in the SEC East and West and which teams will make the Big Dance in March. I usually like to wait a little longer into the season to make such predictions, but here goes.  I’ll tackle the West today and the East tomorrow.

SEC West

1. Alabama

I’m extremely bullish on the Tide now with Anthony Grant at the helm of the program. I predict Alabama will be a top 15 team by February…if not sooner…although their rankings in the popular polls will probably not reflect it.

2. Ole Miss

Andy Kennedy’s Rebels play harder than any team in the SEC, save for possibly Tennessee, and Terrico White is the best player in the league.

3. Mississippi State

The Bulldogs have return most of their team from last season and have added some talented freshmen.  However, it will be a disappointing season overall.

4. LSU

Heavy personnel losses from a year ago will hamper the Tigers this season.  But Trent Johnson can coach and Bo Spencer is one of the most underrated players in the league.

5. Auburn

Although the Tigers finished strong last season, it will be a disappointing year in 09-10.  Jeff Lebo is not keeping up with his SEC brethren in recruiting.

6. Arkansas

Things seem to get worse and worse for this program every time you turn around. The Hogs were a surprise disappointment last season, but no surprise this season. They will be the worst team in the league. John Pelphrey will be on shaky ground after this season in Fayetteville.

NCAA Predictions:

I like Bama and Ole Miss to make the NCAA Tournament from the West.  One of these two teams could very receive the SEC’s automatic berth by winning the conference tournament.

For those who believe that Scotty Hopson and Tyler Smith had bad games Sunday night  against Purdue, you’re right.  But the Vol who is killing Tennessee right now is J.P. Prince.

Prince has started all five games for the Vols so far this season.  He’s averaging 2.4 points per game and is shooting 31% from the field and 40% from the foul line.  And, oh by the way, Prince did not score a point against the Boilermakers.

What makes Prince even more problematic for Tennessee is that he is no threat to score outside of a layup or dunk.  Against man-to-man defense, this allows Prince’s man to sluff off Prince and clog the middle or double team someone else.

Against top-10-caliber teams which Purdue certainly is, you can ill afford to give someone 19 minutes who is that unproductive.  It will be interesting to see if or when Bruce Pearl juggles his starting lineup in the games ahead.

All in all, I think you have to be pretty pleased with Tennessee’s performance against Purdue.  The Vols went toe-to-toe with one of the nation’s best teams and could just as easily won as lost.

The press was effective when employed.  Although Melvin Goins was a little shaky at the point last night in relief of Bobby Maze, overall that position looks much better than it did a year ago. Wayne Chism outdueled Jujuan Johnson, one of college basketball’s best centers.  Tennessee’s half-court defense was still better than it has been and made some nice adjustments in the second half.

Win or lose, this was a good game for Tennessee to play.  The Vols won’t face a more well-coached, physical team all season, save for possibly Bill Self and Kansas.

The Vols didn’t get their feelings hurt, and didn’t take their toys and go home in this one.  They were in it until the end, and that’s a good sign.

Tennessee set a school all-time single game scoring record last night against UNC-Asheville with 124 points, but it was Tennessee’s team defense that was the most impressive aspect of Tuesday night’s win.

Let’s get one thing straight.  Asheville would likely not win a game in the SEC, but it is a Division One program.  The Vols held Asheville to one field goal in the first half on their way to a 66-14 halftime lead.  Asheville’s other 12 points came at the foul line.

It was without question the best half-court defensive performance by Tennessee in Bruce Pearl’s four-plus years at Tennessee.  The Vols were fundamentally sound in every aspect.  Their on-ball defense was excellent. Their weakside defense and positioning was consistently good all night, and they weren’t afraid to take a charge.

In two games, granted against mid-major opponents, Tennessee has held them to 36% and 24% field goal shooting for the game.  The Vols have not done that in previous seasons under Pearl, not even to mid-majors.

If you prefer to focus on offense, Tennessee was impressive.  Perhaps most impressive was the team’s assist-to-turnover ratio which was 34-12, almost 3-1.

Any team that scores 124 points while only committing 12 turnovers is executing at a high level, and Tennessee did just that Tuesday night.

It was a wild finish to the 2009 SEC regular season.  Not because the conference was strong this year, but the overall weakness of the league made the race interesting down to the final week of the season.

LSU and Tennessee emerged as champions of the SEC West and East respectively, with the Tigers winning the overall SEC championship.

It was an up-and-down season for most teams in the league with LSU the most consistent throughout.  The Tigers jumped out to a 13-1 conference mark, clinched the SEC title, and then lost their final two.

Kentucky started out 5-0 in conference play, but then stumbled, and lost its last four in a row.  Auburn came out of nowhere to finish second in the West with a 10-6 conference mark.

Both Arkansas and Georgia had seasons to forget, and both Georgia and Alabama fired their head coaches before the season was even over.

But it’s now SEC tournament time, and at least for a few more days, everyone has one last hope.

Here are my final rankings for the 2009 SEC basketball regular season…

1) LSU (13-3) – League’s most consistent team and champion, despite dropping its last two.

2) Auburn (10-6) – Came out of nowhere to finish second in the West and earn a first-round bye in the conference tournament.  Playing like the second best team in the league right now.

3) Tennessee (10-6) – Won two huge road games at Florida and South Carolina to clinch the SEC East title.  Disappointing home loss to Alabama likely cost the Vols seeding in the NCAA tournament.

4) South Carolina (10-6) – Disappointing home loss to Tennessee, but overall a very good season for the Gamecocks.

5)  Florida (9-7) – Closed out regular season with victory against Kentucky.

6) Kentucky (8-8) – Lost its last four conference games.  Things are not well in the Bluegrass.

7) Mississippi State (9-7) – High point of the season was road win at Kentucky.  Could not overcome several costly home losses.

Vanderbilt (8-8) – Most inconsistent team in the league this year.  Loss at Georgia cost the Dores any NCAA tournament hopes, save winning the conference tournament.

9) Alabama (7-9) – Another rough season for the Tide.

10) Ole Miss (7-9) – Ultimately, couldn’t overcome the loss of Chris Warren in the pre-conference season.

11) Arkansas (2-14) – Biggest disappointment in the league this season.

12) Georgia (3-13) – Not much was expected, and not much was accomplished.

Coming Soon – Who’s In and Who’s Out of the NCAA Tournament from the SEC.

With Tennessee’s 86-70 win against South Carolina Thursday night, the seeding for next week’s SEC tournament is beginning to take shape.

The four teams with first round byes have now all been decided.  LSU (#1) and Auburn (#2) are the top two seeds in the West and will get first round byes next week.  Tennessee (#1) and South Carolina (#2) will get first round byes from the East.

While it’s possible for Florida and South Carolina to finish with identical 9-7 records in conference play after Saturday’s games, South Carolina would own the tiebreaker over Florida, even though the two teams split during the regular season, because South Carolina beat the team with the next best record in the East (Kentucky) twice, while Florida has already lost to the Wildcats once.

Florida and Kentucky are playing Saturday for the No. 3 seed in the SEC East, with the loser automatically taking the No. 4 seed. 

Vanderbilt is locked in as the No. 5 seed in the East by virtue of the fact that the Commodores lost to Florida twice in the regular season, and Kentucky has a better Eastern Division record than Vanderbilt, no matter what happens this weekend.

Georgia, of course, is the No. 6 seed in the East.

The West is more complicated.  The No. 3, 4, and 5 seeds won’t be determined until after this weekend’s games.  Arkansas will be the No. 6 seed in the West.

Aside from the Kentucky/Florida game on Saturday, which has not only SEC but NCAA tournament implications, the most interesting matchup has to be the LSU/Auburn game at Auburn.

The “Auburn” Tigers can secure the SEC’s third bid to the NCAA tournament with a win against LSU.  With a win, Auburn would have the requisite 10 conference wins to solidfy a tournament berth.

Tennessee played its best game of the season in its most important game, dominating South Carolina to clinch the SEC East title and the No. 1 Eastern division seed in next week’s SEC tournament.

J.P. Prince Dunks Over South Carolina's Sam Muldrow In The Vols' 86-70 Victory (thestate.com photo)

The Vols have now won the SEC East three out of four years during Bruce Pearl’s tenure at Tennessee.

More importantly, Tennessee secured its fourth-straight NCAA tournament bid with its 10th win in conference play, joining LSU as the only locks for the tournament from the SEC.

If the Kentucky game in Lexington was Tennessee’s worst under Pearl, the South Carolina game may have been Tennessee’s best.

The Vols were aggressive from the get-go against the Gamecocks, withstanding an opening barrage of three’s from South Carolina, and going on to lead 44-40 at the half.

In the second half, the Vols turned up the intensity on both ends of the floor, playing their best half-court defense of the season.  Tennessee opened up a double-digit lead midway through the second half and led by as many as 20 in the last minute of the game.  The 86-70 final score wasn’t that close.

The Vols shot 54.7% from two and 45.5% from three for the game.  That will get it done.  Meanwhile, the Vols held South Carolina to 41.9% shooting for the game from two.  And the Vols dominated the glass, outrebounding South Carolina for the game, 44-22.

J.P. Prince had his best game as a Vol with several rebound dunks and even a three from beyond the arc.

The Vols got contributions up and down the roster, both offensively and defensively.  Tyler Smith led Tennessee with 22 points, and Wayne Chism added 15.  Center Brian Williams had several big baskets down low, while pulling down seven rebounds.

Devan Downey, the Gamecocks’ All-SEC point guard, started the game on fire, but then was held in check, especially in the second half, making only one field goal, a three, at the final buzzer.

Last night’s game was the last for the Vols in the regular season against the SEC East.  Aside from Kentucky, who beat Tennessee twice, the Vols went undefeated against the East this season.

Tennessee is now 19-10 overall and 10-5 in the SEC.  The Vols host Alabama Sunday on CBS in the their regular season finale.

All of a sudden, a team that looked like it might very well not make the NCAA tournament, looks like a team that might make some noise.

Of Pearl’s four teams at Tennessee, this one appears to be playing its best basketball at this stage of the season, peaking at the right time.

Things are looking a lot more interesting, and NCAA Selection Sunday all of a sudden seems a lot more intriguing.

If the Vols want to secure their second-straight SEC East title tonight by

Scotty Hopson

defeating South Carolina, they will need to have a big game from freshman Scotty Hopson.

Hopson could very well be the x-factor in this game.  He’s a matchup problem for South Carolina.

The Gamecocks could attempt to counter Hopson with Dominique Archie getting the defensive assignment against him, but that would leave South Carolina having to defend Tyler Smith with Sam Muldrow or Mike Holmes, which in either case would be a mismatch in the Vols’ favor.

It’s nice for a change to see an opponent with a matchup problem against Tennessee.

To be sure, the Vols have a matchup problem with South Carolina point guard Devan Downey, but at least it’s not a size matchup.  The Vols’ cause tonight will certainly be aided if Bobby Maze and Josh Tabb can slow down the Gamecocks’ All-SEC point guard.

But the key to this game, and the rest of the season for Tennessee, is Hopson.  He’s an athletic talent that Tennessee has not had in a while.

As he goes, so will Tennessee.

With Kentucky’s loss at home to Georgia last night, Tennessee can now win the SEC East outright with a win at South Carolina tonight.

Even if the Vols were to lose Sunday to Alabama and South Carolina were to win its last game at Georgia, the Vols would own the head-to-head over South Carolina, having swept the two games between the two, and thus would win the SEC East.

Other scenarios to consider during the last four days of the SEC regular season…

• Florida’s loss to Mississippi State last night eliminates the Gators from winning the SEC East because they lost twice to Tennessee.
• South Carolina needs to either win its two remaining games or have Tennessee lose its two remaining games to win the SEC East.
• Tennessee could still manage to tie for the SEC East title, even with a loss to South Carolina tonight, if the Vols were to defeat Alabama on Sunday and the Gamecocks were to lose at Georgia on Saturday.
• Kentucky can no longer win the SEC East since it now has seven league losses and it has lost twice to South Carolina.
• Kentucky could manage to finish second in the East and obtain the #2 seed and a first-round bye in next week’s SEC tournament with a win at Florida on Saturday and two Tennessee losses.  The Wildcats would own the head-to-head tiebreaker with the Vols since they beat the Vols twice this season.
• Auburn can clinch an NCAA tournament bid with a win at home against LSU on Saturday.  The Tigers have already secured the #2 seed in the West and a first-round bye in next week’s conference tournament.

Suffice it to say that the SEC East race will finally be decided after this week’s action.

Tennessee took a huge step forward with a road win in Gainesville last Sunday, if not toward the SEC East title, then certainly toward an NCAA tournament berth.

LSU locked up the regular season SEC championship with a victory against Kentucky at Rupp Arena on Saturday, and the Tigers certainly had an impact on the SEC East race, with wins last week over both Kentucky and Florida.  For those keeping score, LSU now has victories over the top four teams in the East this season.

Looking ahead to this week, all eyes will be focused on Columbia, SC Thursday night when the Vols and Gamecocks tangle with first place in the SEC East up for grabs.

The Vols can clinch the SEC East title with a win against South Carolina and a Kentucky loss in one of its last two games.  South Carolina, Kentucky and Florida can all win the East but under much more complicated scenarios than Tennessee.

Here are my rankings for the week of 3-2-09 with one week left to play…

1. LSU (13-1) – SEC Champions and poised to get highest SEC seed in NCAA tournament.

2. South Carolina (9-5) – Only East contender not to have lost a conference game at home to this point.

3.  Kentucky (8-6) – Rough week last week for the Cats.  Big game Saturday against the Gators in Gainesville.

4. Tennessee (9-5) – Big win in Gainesville has the Vols squarely in the hunt for the East title.

5. Florida (8-6) – Hanging on, but could cure a lot of ills versus the Wildcats on Saturday.

6. Auburn (8-6) – Could play its way into NCAA tournament with two wins this week.

7. Mississippi State (7-7) – NCAA tournament hopes all but dashed after blowout loss at home to Auburn.

8. Vanderbilt (6-8) – Up-and-down Dores lose to Georgia and demolish South Carolina last week.

9. Ole Miss (6-8) – Andy Kennedy likely preparing for other “court” action.

10. Alabama (6-8) – Vols should be wary of Tide on Saturday.

11. Arkansas (2-12) – Won last place game against Georgia Sunday.

12. Georgia (2-12) – Could still impact SEC East race with home game against South Carolina this weekend.