BigOrangeBasketball.comTennessee Basketball

One thing’s for certain about Tennessee’s fortunes in the 2009 SEC basketball tournament…it will have to play either Alabama or Vanderbilt in the quarterfinals on Friday.

What is less certain is who would you rather play.

On the surface, you might say Vanderbilt, a team that Tennessee beat twice this season doing so handily.  Not only did Tennessee win easily in both contests, but Vanderbilt probably looked their worst in both games.

But then you have the old adage that it’s difficult to beat a good team three times.  Which begs the question…is Vanderbilt a good team?

The Commodores certainly didn’t look like a good team when the Vols played them, but they have won three in a row, including a decisive road win against SEC Champion LSU.

Then there’s the other possible opponent for Tennessee, the Crimson Tide. Just four days ago, the Tide defeated the Vols at home on a last-second three, 70-67.

Alabama featured size and athleticism that has given Tennessee problems all season, but Tennessee was extremely flat, coming off an emotional win earlier in the week against South Carolina to clinch the SEC East championship.

So if you’re a Vol fan, whom do you prefer to play on Friday?

Here’s hoping the Vols draw a rematch with the Crimson Tide.

From a psychological standpoint, I think the Vols would be motivated for payback against Alabama.  Who knows for sure when you’re talking about 21-year-old kids, but my bet is that Bruce Pearl will have a better shot in getting his team’s attention against the Tide than the Dores.

I hesitate to say the Vols couldn’t play worse than they did last Sunday against Alabama, but they certainly played poorly, and only lost on a last-second three.

Alabama is still Alabama this season when it comes to taking frequent bad shots and making bad decisions with the basketball.  And I think I would rather take my chances with a Philip Pearson-coached team than a Kevin Stallings-coached team.

In this particular instance, I would rather play the team that has beaten Tennessee than the team Tennessee has beaten twice.

Fortunately, for Vols fans, the question is not whether Tennessee will make this year’s NCAA Tournament or not, but rather what their seed will be and where they will play?

As it stands today, I project Tennessee as a #6 seed.

The Vols’ performance in this week’s SEC Tournament could affect their seeding some.

If the Vols were to win the SEC Tournament this week, I could see them possibly moving up to a #4 seed.  That’s the absolute highest they could go, but they would have to win the tournament and look rather impressive in doing so to have a shot at a #4.

The Vols could also drop to a #7 seed if they lose their first game of the tournament on Friday.  But that’s as much swing in Tennessee’s seeding as I see.

The Vols will be somewhere between a #4 and #7 seed, but most likely a #6.

The key for the Vols is to avoid the #8 or #9 seed.  Should the Vols garner one of those two seeds and win their first round game, they would most certainly, barring a big upset, play a #1 seed in the second round.  Right now, that likely would mean either North Carolina, Pitt, Memphis or UConn.

If you avoid the #8 or #9 seed, you are at least assured of avoiding a No. 1 seed in the second round. But, of course, as a #6 seed, you are going to play a much more difficult opponent in the first round.

As for where Tennessee will play in the opening round, my bet would be either Greensboro or Dayton.  Those are the two sites closest to Knoxville, and in these tough economic times, I think the selection committee will be even more determined to keep teams as close to home as possible.

If the Vols were to play in Greensboro as part of the North Carolina/Duke invitational, it is not out of the realm of possibilities that Tennessee could meet Duke in the second round, should both teams win in the first round.

If the Vols are bracketed to play in Dayton, they could find themselves matched up in the second round with either Louisville or Michigan State.

All interesting scenarios.  We’ll have to wait until Sunday to find out for sure.

Now the drama really begins.

Who’s in and who’s out of the NCAA Tournament from the SEC?

The SEC, dogged by the perception all season long that it is the weakest it has been in years, will have to fight for every at-large bid it can get.

Working against the SEC is the fact that it has only one team in the RPI Top 25 (Tennessee) and only four teams in the RPI Top 50.

In reality, the SEC has no one to blame but itself this season for its reputation as the weakest power conference in the nation.  Only two schools (Tennessee and Ole Miss) have a strength of schedule in the Top 60.  Every other school’s SOS this season is weaker or outside the Top 60.

One factor that could work in favor of the SEC is that the chairman of this year’s NCAA Tournament Selection Committee is none other than SEC Commissioner Mike Slive.

While Slive will excuse himself during the selection process whenever the committee discusses the merits of an SEC school, his presence and position of power on the committee cannot be underestimated.  Slive’s presence should help the SEC.

So who’s in and who’s out?  Let’s find out…

IN

1. LSU – At 13-3, the Tigers are the regular season SEC Champions.  They are a lock.
2. Tennessee – The Vols have the highest RPI in the SEC at 24 and the No. 2 strength of schedule in the country.  At 10-6 in conference play, the Vols have the requisite number of wins to get the virtually automatic at-large bid.  Tennessee likely lost some seeding with the season-ending loss to Alabama at home, but they could make up for that with a strong showing in the SEC tournament, although the Vols’  performance history in the tournament is anything but impressive.
3. Auburn – The Tigers finished 10-6 in the SEC West, good for second place.  With an RPI of 64, the Tigers may test the precedent that no team has ever been left out of the NCAA tournament that has won 10 conference games since the league split into two divisions. I say the precedent remains intact. Auburn is in.
4. South Carolina – The Gamecocks had an up-and-down season like most of their SEC brethren.  South Carolina’s SOS, ranked No. 95, won’t help it any, but its 10-6 SEC record and No. 2 finish in the East will get the Gamecocks in.

OUT

• Florida – The Gators’ 9-7 SEC record won’t be enough.  Their 48 RPI and SOS ranked No. 90, will keep them out. Gators must win the conference tournament to get in. Nothing short of the championship will get the Gators in.
• Kentucky – With an 8-8 overall conference mark, four conference losses in a row to end the season, and an RPI of 80, the Wildcats will be packing their bags for the NIT.  Not even Commissioner Slive can save Kentucky this season.
• Mississippi State – The Bulldogs’ 83 RPI and SOS ranked No. 60, will keep them out.
• Vanderbilt, Alabama, Ole Miss, Arkansas and Georgia are also out.

SEC Tournament Implications

Of course, the SEC could add a fifth team if someone other than LSU, Tennessee, Auburn or South Carolina, wins the SEC tournament.

If that does happen, I do believe the SEC will get five.  I believe both Auburn and South Carolina are safe, even if someone other than the top four teams, wins the tournament.

And don’t believe what you will hear during the tournament from the SEC pundits who will say that Kentucky or Florida could play their way in with a couple of wins in the tournament.

Rarely does a team’s performance in the conference tournament, short of winning it, elevate a team into the tournament that was out before it began. 

A team already penciled in as an at-large team can improve or hurt their seeding in the NCAA tournament based on their performance in the conference tournament, but if you’re out, you have to win to get in.

Having said that, I think it’s highly likely that a team other than LSU, Tennessee, Auburn or South Carolina, will win the SEC tournament. There simply is not enough strength or separation among the top four to make it unlikely.

The odds are definitely in favor of a surprise team cutting down the nets in Tampa.