BigOrangeBasketball.comTennessee Basketball

One thing’s for certain about Tennessee’s fortunes in the 2009 SEC basketball tournament…it will have to play either Alabama or Vanderbilt in the quarterfinals on Friday.

What is less certain is who would you rather play.

On the surface, you might say Vanderbilt, a team that Tennessee beat twice this season doing so handily.  Not only did Tennessee win easily in both contests, but Vanderbilt probably looked their worst in both games.

But then you have the old adage that it’s difficult to beat a good team three times.  Which begs the question…is Vanderbilt a good team?

The Commodores certainly didn’t look like a good team when the Vols played them, but they have won three in a row, including a decisive road win against SEC Champion LSU.

Then there’s the other possible opponent for Tennessee, the Crimson Tide. Just four days ago, the Tide defeated the Vols at home on a last-second three, 70-67.

Alabama featured size and athleticism that has given Tennessee problems all season, but Tennessee was extremely flat, coming off an emotional win earlier in the week against South Carolina to clinch the SEC East championship.

So if you’re a Vol fan, whom do you prefer to play on Friday?

Here’s hoping the Vols draw a rematch with the Crimson Tide.

From a psychological standpoint, I think the Vols would be motivated for payback against Alabama.  Who knows for sure when you’re talking about 21-year-old kids, but my bet is that Bruce Pearl will have a better shot in getting his team’s attention against the Tide than the Dores.

I hesitate to say the Vols couldn’t play worse than they did last Sunday against Alabama, but they certainly played poorly, and only lost on a last-second three.

Alabama is still Alabama this season when it comes to taking frequent bad shots and making bad decisions with the basketball.  And I think I would rather take my chances with a Philip Pearson-coached team than a Kevin Stallings-coached team.

In this particular instance, I would rather play the team that has beaten Tennessee than the team Tennessee has beaten twice.

Fortunately, for Vols fans, the question is not whether Tennessee will make this year’s NCAA Tournament or not, but rather what their seed will be and where they will play?

As it stands today, I project Tennessee as a #6 seed.

The Vols’ performance in this week’s SEC Tournament could affect their seeding some.

If the Vols were to win the SEC Tournament this week, I could see them possibly moving up to a #4 seed.  That’s the absolute highest they could go, but they would have to win the tournament and look rather impressive in doing so to have a shot at a #4.

The Vols could also drop to a #7 seed if they lose their first game of the tournament on Friday.  But that’s as much swing in Tennessee’s seeding as I see.

The Vols will be somewhere between a #4 and #7 seed, but most likely a #6.

The key for the Vols is to avoid the #8 or #9 seed.  Should the Vols garner one of those two seeds and win their first round game, they would most certainly, barring a big upset, play a #1 seed in the second round.  Right now, that likely would mean either North Carolina, Pitt, Memphis or UConn.

If you avoid the #8 or #9 seed, you are at least assured of avoiding a No. 1 seed in the second round. But, of course, as a #6 seed, you are going to play a much more difficult opponent in the first round.

As for where Tennessee will play in the opening round, my bet would be either Greensboro or Dayton.  Those are the two sites closest to Knoxville, and in these tough economic times, I think the selection committee will be even more determined to keep teams as close to home as possible.

If the Vols were to play in Greensboro as part of the North Carolina/Duke invitational, it is not out of the realm of possibilities that Tennessee could meet Duke in the second round, should both teams win in the first round.

If the Vols are bracketed to play in Dayton, they could find themselves matched up in the second round with either Louisville or Michigan State.

All interesting scenarios.  We’ll have to wait until Sunday to find out for sure.

Now the drama really begins.

Who’s in and who’s out of the NCAA Tournament from the SEC?

The SEC, dogged by the perception all season long that it is the weakest it has been in years, will have to fight for every at-large bid it can get.

Working against the SEC is the fact that it has only one team in the RPI Top 25 (Tennessee) and only four teams in the RPI Top 50.

In reality, the SEC has no one to blame but itself this season for its reputation as the weakest power conference in the nation.  Only two schools (Tennessee and Ole Miss) have a strength of schedule in the Top 60.  Every other school’s SOS this season is weaker or outside the Top 60.

One factor that could work in favor of the SEC is that the chairman of this year’s NCAA Tournament Selection Committee is none other than SEC Commissioner Mike Slive.

While Slive will excuse himself during the selection process whenever the committee discusses the merits of an SEC school, his presence and position of power on the committee cannot be underestimated.  Slive’s presence should help the SEC.

So who’s in and who’s out?  Let’s find out…

IN

1. LSU – At 13-3, the Tigers are the regular season SEC Champions.  They are a lock.
2. Tennessee – The Vols have the highest RPI in the SEC at 24 and the No. 2 strength of schedule in the country.  At 10-6 in conference play, the Vols have the requisite number of wins to get the virtually automatic at-large bid.  Tennessee likely lost some seeding with the season-ending loss to Alabama at home, but they could make up for that with a strong showing in the SEC tournament, although the Vols’  performance history in the tournament is anything but impressive.
3. Auburn – The Tigers finished 10-6 in the SEC West, good for second place.  With an RPI of 64, the Tigers may test the precedent that no team has ever been left out of the NCAA tournament that has won 10 conference games since the league split into two divisions. I say the precedent remains intact. Auburn is in.
4. South Carolina – The Gamecocks had an up-and-down season like most of their SEC brethren.  South Carolina’s SOS, ranked No. 95, won’t help it any, but its 10-6 SEC record and No. 2 finish in the East will get the Gamecocks in.

OUT

• Florida – The Gators’ 9-7 SEC record won’t be enough.  Their 48 RPI and SOS ranked No. 90, will keep them out. Gators must win the conference tournament to get in. Nothing short of the championship will get the Gators in.
• Kentucky – With an 8-8 overall conference mark, four conference losses in a row to end the season, and an RPI of 80, the Wildcats will be packing their bags for the NIT.  Not even Commissioner Slive can save Kentucky this season.
• Mississippi State – The Bulldogs’ 83 RPI and SOS ranked No. 60, will keep them out.
• Vanderbilt, Alabama, Ole Miss, Arkansas and Georgia are also out.

SEC Tournament Implications

Of course, the SEC could add a fifth team if someone other than LSU, Tennessee, Auburn or South Carolina, wins the SEC tournament.

If that does happen, I do believe the SEC will get five.  I believe both Auburn and South Carolina are safe, even if someone other than the top four teams, wins the tournament.

And don’t believe what you will hear during the tournament from the SEC pundits who will say that Kentucky or Florida could play their way in with a couple of wins in the tournament.

Rarely does a team’s performance in the conference tournament, short of winning it, elevate a team into the tournament that was out before it began. 

A team already penciled in as an at-large team can improve or hurt their seeding in the NCAA tournament based on their performance in the conference tournament, but if you’re out, you have to win to get in.

Having said that, I think it’s highly likely that a team other than LSU, Tennessee, Auburn or South Carolina, will win the SEC tournament. There simply is not enough strength or separation among the top four to make it unlikely.

The odds are definitely in favor of a surprise team cutting down the nets in Tampa.

It was a wild finish to the 2009 SEC regular season.  Not because the conference was strong this year, but the overall weakness of the league made the race interesting down to the final week of the season.

LSU and Tennessee emerged as champions of the SEC West and East respectively, with the Tigers winning the overall SEC championship.

It was an up-and-down season for most teams in the league with LSU the most consistent throughout.  The Tigers jumped out to a 13-1 conference mark, clinched the SEC title, and then lost their final two.

Kentucky started out 5-0 in conference play, but then stumbled, and lost its last four in a row.  Auburn came out of nowhere to finish second in the West with a 10-6 conference mark.

Both Arkansas and Georgia had seasons to forget, and both Georgia and Alabama fired their head coaches before the season was even over.

But it’s now SEC tournament time, and at least for a few more days, everyone has one last hope.

Here are my final rankings for the 2009 SEC basketball regular season…

1) LSU (13-3) – League’s most consistent team and champion, despite dropping its last two.

2) Auburn (10-6) – Came out of nowhere to finish second in the West and earn a first-round bye in the conference tournament.  Playing like the second best team in the league right now.

3) Tennessee (10-6) – Won two huge road games at Florida and South Carolina to clinch the SEC East title.  Disappointing home loss to Alabama likely cost the Vols seeding in the NCAA tournament.

4) South Carolina (10-6) – Disappointing home loss to Tennessee, but overall a very good season for the Gamecocks.

5)  Florida (9-7) – Closed out regular season with victory against Kentucky.

6) Kentucky (8-8) – Lost its last four conference games.  Things are not well in the Bluegrass.

7) Mississippi State (9-7) – High point of the season was road win at Kentucky.  Could not overcome several costly home losses.

Vanderbilt (8-8) – Most inconsistent team in the league this year.  Loss at Georgia cost the Dores any NCAA tournament hopes, save winning the conference tournament.

9) Alabama (7-9) – Another rough season for the Tide.

10) Ole Miss (7-9) – Ultimately, couldn’t overcome the loss of Chris Warren in the pre-conference season.

11) Arkansas (2-14) – Biggest disappointment in the league this season.

12) Georgia (3-13) – Not much was expected, and not much was accomplished.

Coming Soon – Who’s In and Who’s Out of the NCAA Tournament from the SEC.

With Tennessee’s 86-70 win against South Carolina Thursday night, the seeding for next week’s SEC tournament is beginning to take shape.

The four teams with first round byes have now all been decided.  LSU (#1) and Auburn (#2) are the top two seeds in the West and will get first round byes next week.  Tennessee (#1) and South Carolina (#2) will get first round byes from the East.

While it’s possible for Florida and South Carolina to finish with identical 9-7 records in conference play after Saturday’s games, South Carolina would own the tiebreaker over Florida, even though the two teams split during the regular season, because South Carolina beat the team with the next best record in the East (Kentucky) twice, while Florida has already lost to the Wildcats once.

Florida and Kentucky are playing Saturday for the No. 3 seed in the SEC East, with the loser automatically taking the No. 4 seed. 

Vanderbilt is locked in as the No. 5 seed in the East by virtue of the fact that the Commodores lost to Florida twice in the regular season, and Kentucky has a better Eastern Division record than Vanderbilt, no matter what happens this weekend.

Georgia, of course, is the No. 6 seed in the East.

The West is more complicated.  The No. 3, 4, and 5 seeds won’t be determined until after this weekend’s games.  Arkansas will be the No. 6 seed in the West.

Aside from the Kentucky/Florida game on Saturday, which has not only SEC but NCAA tournament implications, the most interesting matchup has to be the LSU/Auburn game at Auburn.

The “Auburn” Tigers can secure the SEC’s third bid to the NCAA tournament with a win against LSU.  With a win, Auburn would have the requisite 10 conference wins to solidfy a tournament berth.

Tennessee played its best game of the season in its most important game, dominating South Carolina to clinch the SEC East title and the No. 1 Eastern division seed in next week’s SEC tournament.

J.P. Prince Dunks Over South Carolina's Sam Muldrow In The Vols' 86-70 Victory (thestate.com photo)

The Vols have now won the SEC East three out of four years during Bruce Pearl’s tenure at Tennessee.

More importantly, Tennessee secured its fourth-straight NCAA tournament bid with its 10th win in conference play, joining LSU as the only locks for the tournament from the SEC.

If the Kentucky game in Lexington was Tennessee’s worst under Pearl, the South Carolina game may have been Tennessee’s best.

The Vols were aggressive from the get-go against the Gamecocks, withstanding an opening barrage of three’s from South Carolina, and going on to lead 44-40 at the half.

In the second half, the Vols turned up the intensity on both ends of the floor, playing their best half-court defense of the season.  Tennessee opened up a double-digit lead midway through the second half and led by as many as 20 in the last minute of the game.  The 86-70 final score wasn’t that close.

The Vols shot 54.7% from two and 45.5% from three for the game.  That will get it done.  Meanwhile, the Vols held South Carolina to 41.9% shooting for the game from two.  And the Vols dominated the glass, outrebounding South Carolina for the game, 44-22.

J.P. Prince had his best game as a Vol with several rebound dunks and even a three from beyond the arc.

The Vols got contributions up and down the roster, both offensively and defensively.  Tyler Smith led Tennessee with 22 points, and Wayne Chism added 15.  Center Brian Williams had several big baskets down low, while pulling down seven rebounds.

Devan Downey, the Gamecocks’ All-SEC point guard, started the game on fire, but then was held in check, especially in the second half, making only one field goal, a three, at the final buzzer.

Last night’s game was the last for the Vols in the regular season against the SEC East.  Aside from Kentucky, who beat Tennessee twice, the Vols went undefeated against the East this season.

Tennessee is now 19-10 overall and 10-5 in the SEC.  The Vols host Alabama Sunday on CBS in the their regular season finale.

All of a sudden, a team that looked like it might very well not make the NCAA tournament, looks like a team that might make some noise.

Of Pearl’s four teams at Tennessee, this one appears to be playing its best basketball at this stage of the season, peaking at the right time.

Things are looking a lot more interesting, and NCAA Selection Sunday all of a sudden seems a lot more intriguing.

If the Vols want to secure their second-straight SEC East title tonight by

Scotty Hopson

defeating South Carolina, they will need to have a big game from freshman Scotty Hopson.

Hopson could very well be the x-factor in this game.  He’s a matchup problem for South Carolina.

The Gamecocks could attempt to counter Hopson with Dominique Archie getting the defensive assignment against him, but that would leave South Carolina having to defend Tyler Smith with Sam Muldrow or Mike Holmes, which in either case would be a mismatch in the Vols’ favor.

It’s nice for a change to see an opponent with a matchup problem against Tennessee.

To be sure, the Vols have a matchup problem with South Carolina point guard Devan Downey, but at least it’s not a size matchup.  The Vols’ cause tonight will certainly be aided if Bobby Maze and Josh Tabb can slow down the Gamecocks’ All-SEC point guard.

But the key to this game, and the rest of the season for Tennessee, is Hopson.  He’s an athletic talent that Tennessee has not had in a while.

As he goes, so will Tennessee.

With Kentucky’s loss at home to Georgia last night, Tennessee can now win the SEC East outright with a win at South Carolina tonight.

Even if the Vols were to lose Sunday to Alabama and South Carolina were to win its last game at Georgia, the Vols would own the head-to-head over South Carolina, having swept the two games between the two, and thus would win the SEC East.

Other scenarios to consider during the last four days of the SEC regular season…

• Florida’s loss to Mississippi State last night eliminates the Gators from winning the SEC East because they lost twice to Tennessee.
• South Carolina needs to either win its two remaining games or have Tennessee lose its two remaining games to win the SEC East.
• Tennessee could still manage to tie for the SEC East title, even with a loss to South Carolina tonight, if the Vols were to defeat Alabama on Sunday and the Gamecocks were to lose at Georgia on Saturday.
• Kentucky can no longer win the SEC East since it now has seven league losses and it has lost twice to South Carolina.
• Kentucky could manage to finish second in the East and obtain the #2 seed and a first-round bye in next week’s SEC tournament with a win at Florida on Saturday and two Tennessee losses.  The Wildcats would own the head-to-head tiebreaker with the Vols since they beat the Vols twice this season.
• Auburn can clinch an NCAA tournament bid with a win at home against LSU on Saturday.  The Tigers have already secured the #2 seed in the West and a first-round bye in next week’s conference tournament.

Suffice it to say that the SEC East race will finally be decided after this week’s action.

Tennessee took a huge step forward with a road win in Gainesville last Sunday, if not toward the SEC East title, then certainly toward an NCAA tournament berth.

LSU locked up the regular season SEC championship with a victory against Kentucky at Rupp Arena on Saturday, and the Tigers certainly had an impact on the SEC East race, with wins last week over both Kentucky and Florida.  For those keeping score, LSU now has victories over the top four teams in the East this season.

Looking ahead to this week, all eyes will be focused on Columbia, SC Thursday night when the Vols and Gamecocks tangle with first place in the SEC East up for grabs.

The Vols can clinch the SEC East title with a win against South Carolina and a Kentucky loss in one of its last two games.  South Carolina, Kentucky and Florida can all win the East but under much more complicated scenarios than Tennessee.

Here are my rankings for the week of 3-2-09 with one week left to play…

1. LSU (13-1) – SEC Champions and poised to get highest SEC seed in NCAA tournament.

2. South Carolina (9-5) – Only East contender not to have lost a conference game at home to this point.

3.  Kentucky (8-6) – Rough week last week for the Cats.  Big game Saturday against the Gators in Gainesville.

4. Tennessee (9-5) – Big win in Gainesville has the Vols squarely in the hunt for the East title.

5. Florida (8-6) – Hanging on, but could cure a lot of ills versus the Wildcats on Saturday.

6. Auburn (8-6) – Could play its way into NCAA tournament with two wins this week.

7. Mississippi State (7-7) – NCAA tournament hopes all but dashed after blowout loss at home to Auburn.

8. Vanderbilt (6-8) – Up-and-down Dores lose to Georgia and demolish South Carolina last week.

9. Ole Miss (6-8) – Andy Kennedy likely preparing for other “court” action.

10. Alabama (6-8) – Vols should be wary of Tide on Saturday.

11. Arkansas (2-12) – Won last place game against Georgia Sunday.

12. Georgia (2-12) – Could still impact SEC East race with home game against South Carolina this weekend.

Tennessee moved one win closer to securing its fourth NCAA tournament bid in as many seasons under Bruce Pearl with an improbable, yet impressive, win against Florida in Gainesville Sunday afternoon.

The Vols moved back into a first-place tie in the SEC East with South Carolina and can clinch at least a tie for the SEC East title with a win against South Carolina in Columbia Thursday night.

More importantly, the Vols, now 9-5 overall in conference play, are one win away from locking up an NCAA bid, no matter how they play in the SEC tournament in two weeks.

This game came down to offensive efficiency, and the Vols were just a little bit better after 40 minutes.  Against a porous Gator defense, the Vols shot 10-19 from three for the game and 52.6% from two.  The Gators, conversely, shot a very respectable 13-28 from three, but only 45.8% from two.  That was the difference.

The Vols finish the regular season at home against Alabama, and South Carolina finishes on the road at Georgia.

ESPN will televise Thursday night’s game between the Vols and Gamecocks at 7:00 p.m. Eastern.