BigOrangeBasketball.comTennessee Basketball

In Part 2 of my projected look ahead at the SEC race this season, here’s my predicted order of finish in the East.  The balance of power in the conference will definitely remain in the East this season.  I anticipate as competitive an SEC East race as there has been since the conference was split up into the two divisions. Ironically, however, Alabama could very well win the regular season championship outright by virtue of the fact that the SEC East teams will be beating each other up throughout the season.

SEC East

1. Tennessee (11-5)

Bruce Pearl’s Vols have won the SEC East championship three of the four years Pearl has been the coach and I see no reason to go against Tennessee this season, although it will be a close race.  The Vols seem to have stabilized their point guard situation with the addition of backup Melvin Goins.  Scotty Hopson will have to have a big year, and I expect he will.  And Tyler Smith will need to be much more consistent in SEC play than he was last season, and I think he will in this his senior season.

2. Kentucky/Vanderbilt/Florida tie (10-6)

Kentucky

Kentucky fans will be insulted at the notion that their beloved Wildcats won’t win the SEC East or the SEC going away this season, what with John Calipari and an influx of top-ranked recruits now on the roster.  But this isn’t Conference USA or the Atlantic 10.  And I’m not convinced that the dribble-drive offense will be effective night after night in the SEC.  Fundamentally, it’s not a sound offense, and Kentucky has always been strong on fundamentals, like them or not.  The Wildcats may have more talent than they’ve had, but are they better coached?

Florida

It’s hard to believe you say that the two-time defending NCAA Champions two years removed could be overlooked by many this year, but it appears to me that’s the case. The Gators seem to have trimmed some of the dead wood on their roster from the past two seasons, and Billy Donovan seems to have recovered from the Orlando Magic hangover.  Florida will have a strong year.

Vanderbilt

The Commodores may have the best combination of talent and experience in the league this season, but Kevin Stallings in 10 seasons at Vanderbilt has never won an SEC East title so I’ll go with the odds that he won’t again this season.  For whatever reason, the ‘Dores can’t seem to sustain consistently solid play once the conference portion of the schedule begins.

South Carolina (8-8)

The Gamecocks may very well be improved over last season when they won 10 games in the SEC East and finished second to Tennessee head-to-head.  But I don’t think South Carolina has improved as much as the three teams above them, and I’m not convinced that South Carolina, under Darrin Horn is a very good defensive team.

Georgia (4-12)

I actually like the hire of Mark Fox, but the Dawgs have got a ways to go become competitive with their SEC East brethren. I do look for Georgia to improve as the season goes along and have some say about who wins the East come late February.

NCAA Predictions

I think Tennessee and Kentucky are in.  It used to be that 10 regular season conference wins got you into the tournament automatically, but that changed after last year and the perception that the SEC was a down league.  I don’t see that perception changing much this season, so I see Vandy and Florida on the bubble. Florida may get the edge over Vanderbilt by virtue of its recent history in NCAA tournament play.

Several of you have asked me to make my predicitons on the order of finish this season in the SEC East and West and which teams will make the Big Dance in March. I usually like to wait a little longer into the season to make such predictions, but here goes.  I’ll tackle the West today and the East tomorrow.

SEC West

1. Alabama

I’m extremely bullish on the Tide now with Anthony Grant at the helm of the program. I predict Alabama will be a top 15 team by February…if not sooner…although their rankings in the popular polls will probably not reflect it.

2. Ole Miss

Andy Kennedy’s Rebels play harder than any team in the SEC, save for possibly Tennessee, and Terrico White is the best player in the league.

3. Mississippi State

The Bulldogs have return most of their team from last season and have added some talented freshmen.  However, it will be a disappointing season overall.

4. LSU

Heavy personnel losses from a year ago will hamper the Tigers this season.  But Trent Johnson can coach and Bo Spencer is one of the most underrated players in the league.

5. Auburn

Although the Tigers finished strong last season, it will be a disappointing year in 09-10.  Jeff Lebo is not keeping up with his SEC brethren in recruiting.

6. Arkansas

Things seem to get worse and worse for this program every time you turn around. The Hogs were a surprise disappointment last season, but no surprise this season. They will be the worst team in the league. John Pelphrey will be on shaky ground after this season in Fayetteville.

NCAA Predictions:

I like Bama and Ole Miss to make the NCAA Tournament from the West.  One of these two teams could very receive the SEC’s automatic berth by winning the conference tournament.

For those who believe that Scotty Hopson and Tyler Smith had bad games Sunday night  against Purdue, you’re right.  But the Vol who is killing Tennessee right now is J.P. Prince.

Prince has started all five games for the Vols so far this season.  He’s averaging 2.4 points per game and is shooting 31% from the field and 40% from the foul line.  And, oh by the way, Prince did not score a point against the Boilermakers.

What makes Prince even more problematic for Tennessee is that he is no threat to score outside of a layup or dunk.  Against man-to-man defense, this allows Prince’s man to sluff off Prince and clog the middle or double team someone else.

Against top-10-caliber teams which Purdue certainly is, you can ill afford to give someone 19 minutes who is that unproductive.  It will be interesting to see if or when Bruce Pearl juggles his starting lineup in the games ahead.

All in all, I think you have to be pretty pleased with Tennessee’s performance against Purdue.  The Vols went toe-to-toe with one of the nation’s best teams and could just as easily won as lost.

The press was effective when employed.  Although Melvin Goins was a little shaky at the point last night in relief of Bobby Maze, overall that position looks much better than it did a year ago. Wayne Chism outdueled Jujuan Johnson, one of college basketball’s best centers.  Tennessee’s half-court defense was still better than it has been and made some nice adjustments in the second half.

Win or lose, this was a good game for Tennessee to play.  The Vols won’t face a more well-coached, physical team all season, save for possibly Bill Self and Kansas.

The Vols didn’t get their feelings hurt, and didn’t take their toys and go home in this one.  They were in it until the end, and that’s a good sign.

Not only did Tennessee sign the most highly ranked player ever on Wednesday with the commitment of Tobias Harris, but Bruce Pearl, in his fifth season at UT, has now pushed the national recruiting door open for the program.

Indeed, the Harris announcement yesterday signified a couple of important developments for Tennessee basketball.

If Tennessee is ever going to be able to elevate itself beyond a  Sweet 16 appearance in the NCAA tournament, it will need more days like Thursday when a consensus top 10 player nationally commits to the Vols.  If you want to compete with the North Carolina’s, UCLA’s, Duke’s and Texas’s of the world, you have to be able to sign these type of players.

Secondly, yesterday’s announcement sends a message to other high-profile prospects that Tennessee is a player in the big-time recruiting game…that Tennessee is a program on the rise.

Harris’ signing legitimizes what’s happening with Tennessee to a lot of other big-time players.

When the dust settles on the 2009-10 high school hoops season, Harris will undoubtedly be named a McDonald’s All-American, the second (Scotty Hopson) signed by Pearl in three years.  That is signficant.

One can only hope that the Vols can ride this recruiting momentum through the spring with a highly successful season this year. If the Vols can maintain a top 15 ranking and remain near the top of the SEC this year, don’t be surprised if another couple of  national recruits come Tennessee’s way in the spring.

I definitely think JayVaughn Pinkston is still in play, and don’t be surprised if Josh Selby has an about face.

Here’s hoping for more days like yesterday for the Vols.  Let them eat cake!

In a strange twist of events that only the world of college basketball recruiting can produce, the Vols apparently did sign a marquee power forward from New York today.  It just wasn’t JayVaughn Pinkston.

It is now expected that 6-8, 210-pound five-star power foward Tobias Harris, a consensus top five player nationally, will announce his signing with the basketball Vols Thursday at 6:00 p.m. EST on ESPNU from midtown Manhattan’s ESPN Zone.  It is believed that Harris signed today.  It just won’t be announced until Thursday.

It has been undoubtedly a whirlwind last 24 hours for the Vol coaching staff as the fall signing period came to a close today.

It was widely expected that JayVaughn Pinkston, the No. 7 rated power forward in his own right, would announce the signing of his national letter of intent with the Vols today, but that began to unravel last night when Harris and his family showed up at Thompson-Boling Arena Tuesday night for the UT-UNC-Asheville game.

Harris and family were actually in Atlanta on Monday making their final official visit to Georgia Tech.  Instead of returning to New York as planned on Tuesday, Harris and his parents instead drove to Knoxville for an unofficial visit with the Vols.

By the time Harris’ impromptu visit to Knoxville ended Tuesday night, he had committed to the Vols.  That’s when things began to unravel with Pinkston.

It is unclear whether the Vols rescinded their offer to Pinkston once they had the commitment from Harris or whether Pinkston got cold feet after learning that Harris would become a Vol, but Pinkston abruptly cancelled his scheduled announcement today and said he would not sign until the spring.

My guess is that the Vols would have taken Pinkston and Harris, but that Pinkston got cold feet at the last minute when he learned Harris was coming to Tennessee.  The Vols could still sign him in April.

Nonetheless, the anticipated announcement of Harris’ signing with the Vols tomorrow is huge for Bruce Pearl and the Tennessee program.

If you can compare signings between sports, Harris’ anticipated signing with Tennessee in basketball equates to Peyton Manning’s signing with the Vols in football.  This is most certainly one of the top five signees in the history of the program.  Not since Allan Houston came to UT with his father Wade, have the Vols signed someone with the potential impact that Harris could have.

At 6-8 and 210 pounds, Harris had narrowed his choices to Louisville, Kentucky, Georgia Tech, Syracuse, West Virginia and Tennessee, not exactly college basketball lightweights.  In fact, Harris attended Kentucky’s famed Midnight Madness celebration back in October.

But by all accounts, Harris is a Vol.  It will become official on Thursday.

Tennessee set a school all-time single game scoring record last night against UNC-Asheville with 124 points, but it was Tennessee’s team defense that was the most impressive aspect of Tuesday night’s win.

Let’s get one thing straight.  Asheville would likely not win a game in the SEC, but it is a Division One program.  The Vols held Asheville to one field goal in the first half on their way to a 66-14 halftime lead.  Asheville’s other 12 points came at the foul line.

It was without question the best half-court defensive performance by Tennessee in Bruce Pearl’s four-plus years at Tennessee.  The Vols were fundamentally sound in every aspect.  Their on-ball defense was excellent. Their weakside defense and positioning was consistently good all night, and they weren’t afraid to take a charge.

In two games, granted against mid-major opponents, Tennessee has held them to 36% and 24% field goal shooting for the game.  The Vols have not done that in previous seasons under Pearl, not even to mid-majors.

If you prefer to focus on offense, Tennessee was impressive.  Perhaps most impressive was the team’s assist-to-turnover ratio which was 34-12, almost 3-1.

Any team that scores 124 points while only committing 12 turnovers is executing at a high level, and Tennessee did just that Tuesday night.

In somewhat of a surprise move, multiple sources, including the New York Daily News, are reporting that Tennessee will sign one of the nation’s best power forwards, JayVaughn Pinkston, to a national letter of intent today.

JayVaughn Pinkston - Photo Courtesy New York Daily News

Pinkston, a 6-6 220-pounder from Brooklyn, is rated the seventh best power forward in the country.  He will reportedly choose the Vols over St. John’s, UConn, Villanova and West Virginia.

This is huge news for Tennessee.  With shooting guards Trae Golden and Jordan McRae, both ranked in the top 20 at their position, already signed for next year, Pearl is quickly putting together one of the best recruiting classes in the country.

On top of this latest recruiting development, it appears that the Vols are in the final two for Tobias Harris, a 6-8 power forward also from New York, rated the No. 2 power forward in the country.  Harris appears to be down to Tennessee and Syracuse and may sign today or Thursday.

Pinkston’s signing today would be huge momentum for the UT program.  All this after five-star point guard Josh Selby decommited from Tennessee earlier this year.

Pinkston has been compared to a blend of Charles Barkley and Carlos Boozer.  A rugged rebounder with solid offensive skills.

Vol fans will remember the last Tennessee signee from Brooklyn turned out to be a pretty good player.  Some guy named King.

Let’s get a few things straight right off the bat…Bruce Pearl will not out-recruit John Calipari at Kentucky.  Pearl may not even win the war of words, and he likely won’t win the glitz and glamor game.

But one thing is for certain.  Pearl will not lie awake at night this season worrying about the sideline coaching matchup with Calipari.

I guarantee you Pearl would rather match coaching wits against Calipari than either of his two Wildcat predecessors, Tubby Smith or Billy Gillispie. 

Pearl is 3-5 versus Kentucky since he has been at Tennessee, the only SEC school with a winning record against Pearl since he’s been at Tennessee.  He was 2-2 versus Calipari when he was at Memphis.

The fact of the matter is that Calipari racked up a lot of wins at his two other collegiate coaching stops – UMass and Memphis – but neither of those schools was in a power conference and neither played the type of conference schedule night after night that Calipari’s Cats will play in the SEC. And his teams won’t host the conference tournament on their home floor like they did every year at Memphis.

Will Calipari’s Cats be competitive in the SEC?  Absolutely.  Will they win an SEC title?  Probably.  Will they dominate the SEC in the manner Kentucky fans are accustomed? Doubtful.

Will Pearl have a favorable coaching matchup against Calipari?  Definitely.

I don’t know about you, but I must admit I was quite surprised to hear that the Vols were ranked 10th and 11th in college basketball’s preseason polls.

After all, the Vols went unranked for most of last season, and by all accounts have not added any significant signees that would warrant such a position.  I find it hard to believe that juco signee Melvin Goins or incoming freshman Kenny Hall would be enough to elevate Tennessee into the Top 10.

Remember, basically the same group of guys last year lost 13 games and earned no better than a No. 9 seed in the NCAA tournament.

But the rankings are what they are, and the Vols are poised to move even higher in the polls in the preconference season, given their schedule.

In fact, it’s quite possible that Tennessee could find itself in the top five in the polls leading up to its game against USC in Los Angeles on Dec. 19th.  The Vols don’t play a true road game until then and only venture away from Thompson-Boling Arena to play against a less-than-stellar field at the Paradise Jam in the Virgin Islands prior to USC.

And it’s not out of the realm of possibilities that the Vols could be 13-0 when they host preseason No. 1 Kansas in Knoxville on Jan. 10.  Tennessee currently does not play a ranked team before then.

If you have tickets to that Kansas/UT game, you might want to hold onto them.

Experience doesn’t always ensure success for any sports teams, but Tennessee has had enough in four years under head coach Bruce Pearl to make you think the 09-10 version of Vol hoops have some promise.

All five starters return from last year’s SEC East championship team as well as seven scholarship upperclassmen.

Pearl has promised that he will return to his pressing full-court basketball roots this season, and that’s a good thing.  The Vols have never been a good half-court defensive team under Pearl.  They’ve always been better at forcing turnovers and quick shots.

Personnel wise, if the Vols are to make another Sweet 16 push in March, they will have to do it on the coattails of sophomore wing Scotty Hopson.  Hopson got off to a horrific start to begin last season, but finished the season finally showing Vol fans what all the recruiting fuss was about.  Hopson finished last season averaging 9.2 ppg, and was pretty darn good in SEC play.  He will need to double his scoring output on a consistent basis this season for the Vols to make a serious run.

The other key personnel situation to watch is the play of juco signee Melvin Goins at the point.  I was critical of the decision to sign Goins last April, but in hindsight this addition may turn out to be the most important.  A potential first-team All-SEC point guard Goins is not, but his addition will allow Pearl to keep a point guard on the floor for the entire 40 minutes this season.  Last year, if you recall, when Bobby Maze went out of the game, Josh Tabb played the point, and the offense was often out of sync.

The schedule is also more favorable this season.  The Vols should go undefeated (9-0) at least until Dec. 19 when they travel to Los Angeles to play Kevin O’Neill’s USC Trojans.